What is a lump in a lung

Lung nodules: model determines cancer risk

early detection

A new risk prediction model from the Stony Brook Cancer Center determines whether the risk of cancer is high or low in patients with lumpy lumps.

Lung and bronchial cancers are the leading killer of cancer in the United States. The five-year survival rate for localized disease is more than 50 percent, according to current statistics. However, the majority of cancers is only detected after metastases have formed. According to study author Barbara Nemesure, lung cancer is often asymptomatic in its early stages. Therefore, the identification of patients at high risk of cancer is crucial. Previous studies in this area have focused on retrospective analysis of lung cancer patients and analysis of high-risk individuals who have been screened for the disease. The results were published in "Cancer Prevention Research".

However, the current study aims to predict the incidence of lung cancer in the general population with lung nodules. The researchers analyzed data from 2,924 patients who came to the institution's Lung Cancer Evaluation Center between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2015 with a lung nodule. Patients with a family history of lung cancer were excluded. This also applied to those people who developed lung cancer within six months of the first consultation.

Participants were divided into two cohorts: discovery and repetition. 171 patients developed lung cancer during the study. Clinical and radiological data were collected for the risk prediction model. The multivariate analyzes show that the combined variables of age, pack years in smokers, a history of cancer, COPD and characteristics of the nodule such as size, a change in tissue with jagged or radiant extensions and the presence of frosted glass in the first cohort were the best predictors of cancer .

These factors were combined to develop an overall risk assessment that divides patients into high and low risk categories. If the risk classification was applied to the replication cohort, the model was able to determine the cancer risk with a sensitivity and specificity of 73 and 81, respectively. Compared to people in the low risk category, the risk of lung cancer was increased more than 14 times.

Source: Stony Brook Cancer Center / press release